4th
Twitter doomed? Not as a mechanism
I was at a BBQ over the weekend, and after having a few too many beers the topic turned onto whether Twitter was a fad or not. Nick and Eric both argue that Twitter is a passing fancy, and will go the way of the dodo. I’ll admit that the signal-noise ratio is pretty lousy, and many people seem to be just tweeting to hear themselves tweet. I don’t think twitter as a concept will go away though.
Nobody really uses ICQ or Friendster much anymore, but as a concept IM and social networking are alive and well. I liken Twitter and the micro-blogging layer to being out on the street. You’re out there, and as a result your words, your attire, and your mannerisms are guarded. You’re more free than someone on stage in front of a crowd (your blog), and less so than in your own living room (your IM or email). That level of communication, that — “Hey this is me, for anyone who cares to notice” — isn’t going anywhere.
Sure the social networking apps fill some of this on-the-street layer as well, but not as simply or directly (when compared to blog vs email) as micro-blogging.